How do you navigate a world that operates in shades of gray? What tools do you leverage to prepare for what might be next? While many people use the terms “forecasting” and “futurecasting” interchangeably, I caution there is a subtle, fundamental difference between the two. What tools serve you best?
Change is one of the few certainties we have in life, these days. I know it sounds counter-intuitive, that one of our handful of certainties in life is uncertainty! Acknowledging that fact leads to a natural question – how do you handle and navigate that truth? What is your response to a change-filled future?
Organizations, leaders, and strategists are understandably reaching for all the predictive tools and resources available. The goal? To anticipate potential future scenarios and avoid outcomes that would render their business obsolete (i.e., Kodak, Borders Book & Music, Blockbuster Video). When practiced in its most pure form, forecasting avoids science fiction, or one-case-only predictions, and relies heavily on data-driven trend analysis. (To see where this is done really well, look to Arizona State University’s Future Lab.)
As humans and individuals, we strive to follow this same type of practice, but here is where it gets tricky since we are also dealing in emotions, and the stories we tell ourselves. We futurecast, rather than forecast. These narratives are based on what we know and feel today, fed by the assumptions and inferences we’ve drawn, that wind up telling us a single story, often with a worst-case-scenario flavor. Inevitably this story creates fear, stress, and worry – all over something that hasn’t even happened and might not (probably will not) happen!
A more productive track for us to travel is one that models more of the business-process version of forecasting. Instead of mapping out potential future outcomes based on what you think or feel, ask yourself, “What do I KNOW?” Examine the what-ifs and proactively plan how best to respond, pivot, change. While there still might be worst-case scenarios, there will also be best-case scenarios. And, it naturally leads to a creative, innovative, proactive mindset. Wins all around!
The difference between forecasting and futurecasting is subtle, but impactful.
So, the next time you find yourself hurtling towards the Futurecast Death Spiral ask yourself these questions:
· How true are these thoughts?
· Based on what information?
· What can I positively, proactively influence?
· How does this serve me? Others?
Then, take a deep breath, go for a walk around the block, and charge ahead with purpose!
